The Unwritten Agreement

 

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Deep Dig: The Precarious Foundations of American Hegemony

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The Unwritten Agreements That Could Undermine U.S. Global Dominance

For decades, the United States has projected an image of indomitable strength, bolstered by its status as the global economic linchpin and the architect of the most formidable military alliance in modern history. The U.S. dollar functions as the world’s primary reserve currency, and NATO has expanded its sphere of influence across Europe and beyond. However, the foundations of these geopolitical and economic structures are alarmingly tenuous—anchored not by formal treaties, but by informal, historically contingent understandings that rest on fragile diplomatic traditions.

🚨 No codified treaties. No legally binding frameworks. Only tacit agreements reliant on the goodwill of foreign actors. 🚨

In this edition of Deep Dig, we examine two of the most precarious pillars of U.S. dominance—the petrodollar system and NATO’s expansionist trajectory—and why their unraveling may be inevitable. The future of global power may not be determined by direct conflict, but rather by the dissolution of these historical arrangements.

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The Petrodollar: A Fragile Economic Hegemony

For nearly five decades, the preeminence of the U.S. dollar has been sustained not by intrinsic economic superiority, nor by an unassailable financial framework, but through a de facto arrangement with Saudi Arabia regarding the pricing of crude oil.

In 1974, a bilateral agreement between Washington and Riyadh established the petrodollar system: Saudi Arabia would price its oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars, compelling all nations to maintain large reserves of the currency for energy transactions. In return, the United States guaranteed military protection and the preservation of Saudi sovereignty.

However, this understanding was never enshrined in a formal treaty.

This arrangement functioned as an implicit quid pro quo, underpinning U.S. economic hegemony for nearly half a century—but its durability is now in question.

🚨 Structural vulnerabilities in the petrodollar system are becoming increasingly apparent:

- Saudi Arabia’s accession to BRICS—a strategic coalition explicitly designed to challenge U.S. economic primacy—signals a willingness to break from Washington’s financial orbit.

- China is advocating for oil transactions in yuan, and Saudi officials have publicly indicated openness to conducting trade in alternative currencies.

- Geopolitical strains between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have reached unprecedented levels, further destabilizing the framework that underpins the petrodollar arrangement.

💡 What happens when Saudi Arabia no longer deems U.S. military protection essential? What occurs when it formally adopts a multipolar currency approach?

If oil ceases to be exclusively traded in dollars, the global demand for USD diminishes precipitously, precipitating inflationary crises and a rapid erosion of U.S. economic influence.

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NATO Expansion: A Legacy of Informal Promises, A Catalyst for Conflict

In the waning days of the Cold War, as the Soviet Union faced imminent collapse, U.S. policymakers offered verbal assurances to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would refrain from expanding eastward. These assurances were pivotal in fostering an environment conducive to a relatively peaceful geopolitical transition.

However, these assurances were never formally codified in a treaty.

🚨 The subsequent trajectory of NATO’s enlargement tells a different story:

- Over the past three decades, NATO has admitted 14 new member states, many of which were formerly within the Soviet sphere of influence.

- Russia, perceiving this expansion as a direct violation of the 1990s-era assurances, invaded Ukraine in 2022, citing NATO’s encroachment as a core justification.

- The addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023-2024 has exacerbated tensions, bringing the alliance’s borders into even closer proximity to Russian territory.

💡 What happens when Moscow ceases to interpret NATO as a defensive alliance and instead views it as an existential threat?

As history has demonstrated, the absence of formalized diplomatic agreements creates a fertile ground for escalating hostilities.

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The End of Informal Hegemony, The Onset of Strategic Disarray

A crucial and often-overlooked reality is that the political figures currently at the helm of global governance were not the architects of these historical agreements.

🛑 No Saudi official presently in power was a signatory to the petrodollar arrangement.

🛑 No Russian leader currently in office was involved in NATO’s 1990s-era assurances.

The assumption that these actors will perpetuate agreements to which they hold no personal or political allegiance is deeply flawed.

🚨 Saudi Arabia’s abandonment of the petrodollar system = Severe economic destabilization for the U.S.

🚨 Russia ceasing to recognize NATO’s diplomatic “red lines” = Direct confrontation between nuclear-armed adversaries.

Time is running out for the United States to transition these historically contingent informal agreements into legally binding frameworks. Yet, as history suggests, trust, once eroded, is exceedingly difficult to restore.

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🌰 Acorn of the Day: How Long Can an Unwritten Power Structure Endure?

U.S. global hegemony is not predestined nor permanent. It is predicated upon the acquiescence of foreign actors to unwritten norms that were neither crafted nor consented to by contemporary political leaders.

🐿️ How long before a global actor rejects these assumptions?

🐿️ How long before Saudi Arabia undermines the dollar’s supremacy?

🐿️ How long before NATO’s expansion catalyzes a direct military confrontation?

The U.S. must reckon with the impending consequences of unwritten, unenforceable diplomacy—before global realignments render such considerations moot.

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📢 This has been a Deep Dig investigative report by The Daily Squirrel. Stay vigilant. Stay informed. 🐿️🔥

By James Dargan, The Daily Squirrel

Reporting supported by ChatGPT’s research and editorial insights.

For Inquiries, thedailysquirrelnews@gmail.com